Jaxson Dart & the Rookie Quarterback Clock

When a quarterback is drafted in the first round, a timer begins. That’s because a new quarterback means a new face, a new start—exactly the type of thing that fan bases starved of success crave above all else. From 2020-2025, there have been 21 quarterbacks drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft. 11 of those quarterbacks were starting for their teams in Week 1. Every one that was drafted first overall in that time frame started right away.

The New York Giants entered this year with modest expectations and started the season with veteran Russell Wilson at the helm. But they also traded back into the first round of the Draft to select Jaxson Dart from Ole Miss. It is clear that Dart is the future of the franchise, and after an 0-3 start and a chorus of boos at MetLife Stadium against the Chiefs in Week 3, the Giants decided that the future was now. But did they rush the decision? Recent history tells us that their decision was more normal than we might think.

The Pressure to Evaluate

Drafting a quarterback in the first round more than any other position is a signal that a team has eyes on a fresh start of some sort. It is the sport’s most important position, and a first-round pick is a coveted asset for any NFL franchise—so spending it on a quarterback prospect says a lot about where you think your franchise is in the grand scheme of things.

Rookie quarterbacks are markedly cheaper than veterans. Bryce Young of the Carolina Panthers makes the most of any quarterback on a rookie deal, and he ranks 23rd in quarterback salary this season in the NFL. First-round picks are signed for five-year deals, which means that teams often use that time to overspend on other positions before they have to extend their quarterback. That salary cap dynamic adds extra incentive to see if the player is worth investing more time into and if they are worth building their entire roster around.

Teams that wait to start a rookie often have an incredibly short leash with their incumbent starter. In 2020, Miami waited to start Tua Tagovailoa until Week 6 after a 2-3 start. In 2021, San Francisco and Chicago inserted Trey Lance and Justin Fields after starting 2-2 and 1-1, respectively. In 2022, the Steelers waited until a 1-3 start before inserting Kenny Pickett, while last year the Patriots were 1-4 before throwing Drake Maye in. More often than not, teams want a meaningful sample of snaps to understand what they have in a young quarterback.

The reason for this speaks to how heavily skewed the NFL has become when it comes to the quarterback position. The 2000 Baltimore Ravens winning a Super Bowl with Trent Dilfer are the outlier, not the model, in today’s QB-focused NFL. The position has never been at a higher premium, so teams need to realize if they have someone that could be one of the best eight players at the position and they need to figure it out quickly.

Look no further than the Colts with Anthony Richardson. Drafted only two years ago, it appears that the team has fully accepted that he is not the answer to that riddle and have moved on to Daniel Jones—and are likely to draft a quarterback in the upcoming draft (depending on how long they can sustain their early season success). On the flip side, the Denver Broncos were convinced by what they saw from Bo Nix last season and have committed to building around him while he is more affordable on his rookie contract.

The Giants through three games have had one excellent offensive game against a Dallas team that might have a bottom five defense, and two incredibly lackluster offensive showings against Washington and Kansas City. They rank 23rd in scoring rate, 29th in completion rate, and 31st in red zone scoring percentage. The offense has clearly been an issue, and the team has decided that it’s time to see what they have in Jaxson Dart. But should they have waited?

Should the Giants Have Waited?

The Giants had the unfortunate prospect of entering this season with the toughest schedule in the league. Over the next six weeks the team plays the Chargers, 49ers, Broncos, and the Eagles twice. Their only reprieve is a Week 5 matchup against the Saints. It certainly isn’t an ideal way to start a career for Dart, especially as the Chargers have looked like one of the best teams in the AFC through three weeks.

There is an argument to be made that waiting until Week 9 or 10 before inserting him may have prudent, where the Giants play the 49ers and Bears before they play Green Bay and Detroit. But there is no definitive proof that waiting is always the best policy. Joe Burrow and C.J. Stroud started games right away, but so did Mac Jones and Zach Wilson. The Packers were patient with Jordan Love, but so were the Steelers with Kenny Pickett. You truly don’t know until you put the player out there.

The deeper truth of this decision can likely be traced back to the motivations of the Giants front office. The team has only had three winning seasons since 2012 and has been on a downward trajectory with head coach Brian Daboll after he won Coach of the Year in 2022. They are a team looking for something to be excited about. The pressure for them to play Dart was bubbling in the preseason—and it likely didn’t help matters that the national viewpoint of Russell Wilson is incredibly low at this point.

The final straw was very likely what happened against Kansas City. The offense couldn’t truly get moving, and the Giants fans were very loudly booing Russell Wilson in a standalone prime time game. That sort of reaction was bound to get a reaction from owner John Mara, and the pressure on Daboll has ratcheted up ever more than before.

Russell Wilson’s leash was always going to be short, shortened further when the team drafted a rookie to be his backup. Jaxson Dart represents hope, so the itch to see what he can do will only get louder as they continue to lose games. Time will tell if he pans out, but the Giants need to see what he is sooner rather than later. They run the risk of damaging his confidence so early, especially with their less than promising offensive line, but it seems to be a risk they are willing to take.

He has a tall order ahead of him, missing running back Tyrone Tracy Jr with a suspect offensive line playing against a Chargers team that is among the hottest in the league right now. But it is these games that help define the trajectories of young QBs. Dart will either sink or swim, and Giants fans are hoping that they finally have a franchise quarterback on their hands. Given the schedule difficulty and offensive line questions, starting Dart is defensible for evaluation purposes, but worrisome for his actual development.

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