Michael Penix & the Cruel Reality of Football

Growing up in New York City I never had a college football team to root for. It’s a strange dynamic that most states don’t deal with, but there is no standard option of college football team in the city. St. John’s is in Queens, but they don’t have a football program. Army and Rutgers are close by, but one is a service academy and the other is in New Jersey. The other options are Connecticut, Boston College, Syracuse, Buffalo, and Penn State. A lot of people I knew either became fans of a big program like Penn State or Notre Dame or were college football nomads. I for a long time was a college football nomad.

When I moved to Michigan in 2005, my nomadic status remained the same as I found myself unable to be fully drawn to Michigan, Michigan State, or any of the directional schools in the state. It wasn’t until I moved to Washington state that a team resonated enough with me to become a fan—and that team was the Washington Huskies. I moved here in 2023, when the Huskies went on an undefeated run to the National Championship Game (that they would ironically lose to Michigan) behind the arm of quarterback Michael Penix Jr.

Penix was a revelation that year, leading the country in passing yards and coming in second in Heisman Award voting. He would then get drafted by the Atlanta Falcons to be the QB of the future there despite having recently signed Kirk Cousins to a big deal. But as it did in his early college career, injuries have caught up with Penix—as he suffered his third ACL injury, ending his season. His career thus far is evidence of the way we can fall in love with players and the cruel reality of injuries in this very violent game.

A Story of Resilience

Penix was a three-star recruit coming out of high school and chose to play at Indiana. While Indiana is a winning program today under Curt Cignetti, it’s important to remember that when Penix chose to sign there it was a doormat in the Big Ten, having gone a decade since its last winning season.

Penix was originally committed to Tennessee, but after a coaching change he followed Nick Sheridan to a new job at Indiana. Sheridan was a graduate assistant at Tennessee and left for Indiana to be their quarterback’s coach. Penix also liked the idea of being able to start right away at a struggling Big Ten program and have the opportunity to reverse their fortunes.

Sadly, Penix would be unable to come through on that promise. In his four seasons in Bloomington, he tore his ACL twice, playing a total of 20 games. In 2022 he transferred to Washington, to reunite with his former offensive coordinator at Indiana Kalen DeBoer.

Penix and DeBoer were magical. In their two years together, the Huskies went 25-3 and Penix led the Pac-12 in passing yards in both years. Following his senior year, Penix presented an interesting proposition as a draft prospect. Because of his two redshirts (one following his first ACL injury at Indiana and the other due to the COVID-19 pandemic), Penix was an older prospect at 24 years old.

The intrigue of Penix was in his arm strength. This was reflected with his 13.5 yards per completion. He excelled at throwing accurate deep balls on vertical routes, possessing a touch that teams at the next level crave. But there were still questions about his short to intermediate accuracy and ability to make quick decisions under pressure. Opinions during the draft process were mixed, with some viewing him as a top ten pick while others viewing him as a second-round selection.

The fact that he was even in conversation as a Day One selection showed how far he had come. He was a three-star recruit at a program that was not on the national map and developed into a top tier prospect. He fought back from injuries, exhibiting resiliency that we love in sports. The big question when the Falcons selected him with the eighth overall pick was if he would be able to avoid injury the way he did at Washington. And sadly, he was not—a reminder of the injury element in football and why the football gods can be cruel at times.

The Unfortunate Reality of Injury

Football is a rough game, and injuries are an unfortunate reality. In 2023, the NFL celebrated that it “only” had 52 ACL tears among its players—which was a 24% improvement from the previous season. 3% of the active player pool (when accounting for 53 players on each active roster) suffering a season-ending leg injury feels high and is a reminder of just how dangerous this game can be.

Michael Penix Jr was having a middling season this year, his first as full time starter. He had some brilliant moments like when he threw for 313 yards and two touchdowns against Washington in Week 4. But he also had some dreadful moments, like in Week 3 against the Panthers where the team was held scoreless and he threw two interceptions.

But despite the struggles, there were signs of the promise that he showed at Washington. He was fifth in yards per completion, tied for fifth in interception rate, and had the sixth lowest sack rate in the league. These numbers show that the deep ball traits from college transferred over and the decision-making concerns were addressed.

In the loss to Carolina in Week 11, before sustaining the injury that would end his season, Penix looked to be turning a corner. He was 13/16 for 175 yards and averaged 13.5 yards per completion. Then it all ground to a halt. His injury history and the latest ACL setback cast a lot of doubt on the prospect of his future. ACL recovery these days is typically between 6-9 months, meaning that Penix will likely miss training camp and maybe even some games depending on how his rehab progresses.

There are a few examples of players that had three ACL surgeries coming back to play at a high level. The most famous example of this is Thomas Davis, former Carolina Panthers linebacker. He had three injuries consecutively from 2009-2011. He would then come back and play nine more seasons and be named to three Pro Bowls. But Davis’s example is not a common one.

Considering how Penix lost some of his athleticism from his days at Indiana because of his injuries, it’s fair to wonder how he will look when he returns as a 26-yeard old quarterback with only 12 starts under his belt. It has the makings of a tremendous what-if story for the Falcons, who took Penix over Bo Nix.

As a fan of Michael Penix and the humble man that he appears to be, it pains me to see his career enter such uncertainty before it truly got started. We can only hope that his recovery is swift, and he can overcome yet another health-related obstacle. His story where it stands today, is a reminder of the delicate balance that is professional football, and that injuries are truly the worst part of this wonderful game.

Thanks for reading Deep Cover! This post is public so feel free to share it.